Is the Sky Falling? Aging Aircraft Fleets Raise Concerns

The global passenger aircraft fleet is older than ever before, reaching a record average age of 14 years and 10 months by the end of 2024. This represents a 15-month increase compared to the average over the 25 years since 1990. This aging fleet raises significant questions about maintenance costs, fuel efficiency, and overall safety within the aviation industry.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) attributes this trend to a significant drop in new aircraft deliveries. While deliveries peaked at 1,813 aircraft in 2018, the 2024 estimate was drastically reduced from nearly 1,800 to 1,254 – a 30% decrease. Furthermore, the projected 2,293 deliveries for 2025 have already been revised down to 1,802, with further cuts anticipated.

“An older fleet translates into higher maintenance costs and higher fuel burn,” states the IATA report. This increased expense is impacting airlines worldwide.

Both major aircraft manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, have faced challenges in meeting delivery targets. Boeing, in particular, experienced a difficult year, with the delivery rate of its best-selling 737 Max significantly slowed following an in-flight incident involving a door plug. Ryanair, for example, may need to cut flights next summer due to anticipated shortfalls in aircraft deliveries.

Boeing’s 777X wide-bodied aircraft, touted as “the world’s largest and most efficient twin-engine jet,” is years behind schedule, with Lufthansa expecting a five-year delay in receiving its orders. Airbus cites supply chain issues as the cause of its delivery slowdowns, with CEO Guillaume Faury stating in the summer: “We have thousands of suppliers, and when you have just a couple of them that are late on the ramp-up, that’s slowing down everybody.”

Engine maintenance delays are further compounding the problem, grounding some relatively new aircraft. Issues with Pratt & Whitney engines are affecting Airbus A320-series aircraft, while British Airways and Virgin Atlantic face delays due to repairs needed on Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines. These engine problems have led to route cancellations for both UK airlines.

The backlog of new aircraft orders has reached a record high of 17,000. At current delivery rates, IATA estimates it would take 14 years to clear this backlog – double the six-year average from 2013 to 2019. However, IATA anticipates a shortening of waiting times as delivery rates improve.

A survey of major airlines reveals varying fleet ages. Ryanair boasts one of the youngest fleets in Europe, with an average age of 9 years. easyJet’s average fleet age is currently around 10 years, projected to slightly decrease by early 2025. While British Airways claims to have one of the “most modern fleets of any airline in the world,” Airfleets.net reports an average fleet age of 13 years and six months.

It’s important to note that the age of an aircraft does not necessarily equate to reduced safety, provided proper maintenance is conducted. Delta Airlines, for example, operates some of the oldest aircraft in service, including a Boeing 767 nearing its 35th birthday in 2025, which continues to fly regularly.